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UP Legislative Assembly Elections, 2022: An Analysis

Written by Rajlaxmi, a grade 7 student. This is the second of a 5-piece article series, covering the UP Vidhan Sabha Elections, 2022. Opinions expressed are the author’s own…

By I Kid You Not , in Current Stories , at February 16, 2022 Tags: , ,

Written by Rajlaxmi, a grade 7 student. This is the second of a 5-piece article series, covering the UP Vidhan Sabha Elections, 2022. Opinions expressed are the author’s own…

Predictions and the completion of the first and second of seven phases

As the first and second pollings, taking place on February 10thandFebruary14th, respectively, come to an end, we might finally be able to see the outcome of this ‘chunaav’ [election].

What was the outcome of the first phase? Which constituencies/cities have elected have expressed their choice?

58 constituencies, in 11 districts, have elected the MLAs. Below is the list for the 1stphase;

  • Kairana,
  • Thana Bhawan,
  • Shamli,
  •  Budhana,
  • Charthawal,
  • Purqazi (SC),
  • Muzaffar Nagar,
  • Khatauli,
  • Meerapur,
  • Siwalkhas,
  • Sardhana,
  • Hastinapur (SC),
  • Kithore,
  • Meerut Cantt.,
  • Meerut,
  • Meerut South,
  • Chhaprauli,
  • Baraut,
  • Baghpat,
  • Loni,
  • Muradnagar,
  • Sahibabad,
  • Ghaziabad,
  • Modi Nagar,
  • Dhaulana,
  • Hapur (SC),
  • Garhmukteshwar,
  • Noida,
  • Dadri,
  • Jewar,
  • Sikandrabad,
  • Bulandshahr,
  • Syana,
  • Anupshahr,
  • Debai,
  • Shikarpur,
  • Khurja (SC),
  • Khair (SC),
  • Barauli,
  • Atrauli, and
  • Chharra,
  • Koil,
  • Aligarh,
  • Iglas (SC),
  • Chhata,
  • Mant,
  • Goverdhan,
  • Mathura,
  • Baldev (SC),
  • Etmadpur,
  • Agra Cantt. (SC),
  • Agra South,
  • Agra North,
  • Agra Rural (SC),
  • Fatehpur Sikri,
  • Kheragarh,
  • Fatehabad, and 
  • Bah

The second phase includes

  • Behat,
  • Nakur,
  • Saharanpur Nagar,
  • Saharanpur,
  • Deoband,
  • Rampur Maniharan (SC),
  • Gangoh,
  • Najibabad,
  • Nagina (SC),
  • Barhapur,
  • Dhampur,
  • Nehtaur (SC),
  • Bijnor,
  • Chandpur,
  • Noorpur,
  • Kanth,
  • Thakurdwara,
  • Moradabad Rural,
  • Moradabad Nagar,
  • Kundarki,
  • Bilari,
  • Chandausi (SC),
  • Asmoli,
  • Sambhal,
  • Suar,
  • Chamraua,
  • Bilaspur,
  • Rampur,
  • Milak (SC),
  • Dhanaura (SC),
  • Naugawan Sadat,
  • Amroha,
  • Hasanpur,
  • Gunnaur,
  • Bisauli (SC),
  • Sahaswan,
  • Bilsi,
  • Badaun,
  • Shekhupur,
  • Dataganj.
  • Baheri,
  • Meerganj,
  • Bhojipura,
  • Nawabganj,
  • Faridpur (SC),
  • BithariChainpur,
  • Bareilly,
  • Bareilly Cantt.,
  • Aonla,
  • Katra,
  • Jalalabad,
  • Tilhar,
  • Powayan (SC),
  • Shahjahanpur, and
  • Dadraul.

Overall, the first phase turned out well, it being in the favour of the Bharatiya Janta Party.

The second phase paved a way for Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party.

What is the likely party to secure the most votes? What does Akhilesh Yadav’s SP have in store for BJP?

The party that has the most votes in its favour, is definitely the BJP. While SP mainly has the Yadav and Muslim vote, Brahmins, Thakurs combined with some other castes comprise the BJP vote. Being a nationalist party, the caste appeal is something that won’t matter excessively for BJP, unlike BSP and SP, which, in my opinion, can be considered ‘casteist parties’.Especially considering that the 20% Muslim vote of UP usually goes to SP.

As Akhilesh Yadav contests from the Mainpuri seat, a Muslim-dominated area, he’s sure to win. Unarguably, some of SP’s candidates are strong, but talking in the long term and of the majority vote is bound to go to BJP.

What are reserved seats or seats marked as (SC)?

When a particular constituency has a majority of SC [scheduled caste] votes, the seat is reserved for SC candidates.

This does not mean that the vote only compromises of SC, it merely means that it makes up the majority.

[ This is the second piece of a 5-piece article series covering the UP LA Elections, 2022. Views expressed are the author’s own. ]

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